2)Thouhts on the market over the past couple of months

Things do look cheap right now, but I have not gotten the sense that people have given up and thrown in the towel. As long as people feel that the sell offs present opportunity I don't we will have put in a bottom. Until people in general give up and throw in the towel and really want to disassociate themselves with stocks, I think the true bottom will remain elusive. That being said I feel the massive sell offs do present a short term opportunity to the up side just as these 800 and 900 point upswings present a compelling short opportunity.

I don't think the other shoe has dropped. We have had time to absorb that subprime shock that rocked the markets but the other side of that coin is the weak economic numbers which have yet to reveal their nature or intensity. We start getting numbers that reflect the sentiment of the consumer I think high 6000 to 7000 range on the Dow is not only a possibility but perhaps even a foregone conclusion.

You mention PNC. Here is a email I shot Al Nalven a couple weeks ago when they were given National City.


The PNC deal is the latest mega-merger orchestrated by the government to save a troubled bank. Previous rescues included Washington Mutual and Wachovia. Like Wells Fargo, which bought Wachovia, PNC will benefit from a recent rule change that allows it to use National City's losses to shelter income from taxes.

PNC has been relatively untouched by the mortgage crisis. But the meltdown has caused deep losses for National City. PNC said it expects it could book $19.9 billion in losses, representing 17.5 percent of National City's loan portfolio.


We are in trouble. These guys controlling our tax dollars are stacking the deck, deciding who wins and who loses. And all these write offs become " losses carried forward " for the privileged few in the clique, these thieves may not end up paying any corporate taxes for years, while they come to the public tax payer trough to remain solvent.

So to get this straight, PNC who was " relatively untouched " by the mortgage crisis ( has a profit margin of 19.71% and a operating margin of 34.79%, I just checked ) had a gross profit of 8.04 Billion in 07' and a net profit of 1.467 Billion in 07' and assets of 107 Billion in 07' and a total cash flow of 15.1 Billion, was just given 5.6 Billion in tax payer money to buy National City which had total cash, as of this most recent quarter, of 8.13 Billion ( net of any account holders ). For 2008 National City expects a loss of 20 Billion.

btw - PNC is super heavy in the DC area

PNC - 1.467 Billion in net profits a year
NC - 20 Billion in losses

20/1.5 = 13.33

PNC was given 5.6 Billion ( I have seen figures in the mid 7 range ) in taxpayer money for purchase of NC
PNC made off with 8 Billion Cash from NC buyout
PNC will not ( at current rate run rate ) pay any corporate income tax for 13.33 years

Is it just me or does this seem the definition of Moral Turpitude or just business the American way?