Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Fed cuts rates

Today the Fed cut rates to .25%. Not much wiggle room left. I think things are much worse than they appear and much worse than the Fed is letting on to. The fact that the Fed went .25% lower than was expected was the reason I think the market rallied as much as it did today, although I think this should give us all reason to be even more cautious going into the Christmas buying season. The Fed cut more than anticipated by the market in an attempt to jump out in front of the recession and assure people that they were on top of things. This may be a case of being of being to late as usual. Also they are now talking about buying mortgage backed assets again, the very thing they were supposed to do with the original $700 billion. I still call for Hank Paulson to have to answer to a higher authority and spend time in jail for making matters worse for whatever his reasons may be. They sure as hell don't seem to be linked to protecting the general public involved in the largest financial calamity in the last 70 years. Will the rate cut do what is needed to stem the tide of the current down turn in the markets. I think not. I feel that the market has to find it's own equilibrium and anything that is an external stimulate posses the risk of exacerbating an already tenuous attempt at putting a floor under the markets.
I have said it before but the market needs a point of closure to the housing crisis to find the bottom. The external stimuli of money being thrown around, while in theory may be what is needed, in the context that the funds are being disbursed in and the fact the outline of the disbursement is being changed by the Treasury and the Fed based on internal meetings is causing undue confusion and keeping the markets in a state panic.

Some key happenings that are company specific to my portfolio today:

BBY - offering corporate buyouts to all corporate staffers, this will determine how many layoffs are needed in the 1st quarter. Stock traded up about $4. Should have traded down about $4. I am short BBY at $26.98

AAPL - announced that Jobs would not be attending MacWorld and a research note states that while sales of products are holding up, growth has hit a wall. Short at $94.07

BBBY - Took a short out on BBBY because I don't see this as something people are going to spend money on this Christmas in light of the current economic crisis. Short at $24.57

RIMM - Went short on RIMM today at 39.47 because the IPhone is killing them and this uptick was due to nothing more than the Fed rate cut. Short at $39.47


GPS -Short the GAP at $13.09. Who needs a $55 T-Shirt? Short at $13.09

RVBD -Long mainly because I got caught in the down draft from the $30's. Still a good tech company but will have to wait this one out. Long at $35.11

BCSI -Same reasons as Riverbed. Long at $26.55

STP - Long at $10.77. Was a quick trade that went south on me in a hurry. Has been ticking up and may be at break even soon. Long at $10.77

TSL - Long at $10.33. Anoth quick trade that got away from me on the downside. Not showing much signs of life. Considering averaging down ( bad idea, I know ) to bring the cost down so I can jump out on the next up tick.

Later........

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